Oscar thoughts and predictions

Ok, this may be updated as I see a few more of the movies but I will still be able to give thoughts and predictions on those I haven't seen just from trends and such.

Best Picture Nominees
Benjamin Button
Slumdog
Milk
The Reader
Frost/Nixon

Thoughts: This is between Slumdog and Benjamin Button. I personally don't think Benjamin Button belongs in the same conversation with Slumdog (or the other movies for that matter) but it does have the most nominations which usually means it is the best picture front runner. In the various Critics Awards Slumdog has been the hands down favorite with Milk a distant second and Benjamin Button nowhere to be found. But on the other hand, Milk didn't even get nominated for Golden Globe's best picture. I'd say Slumdog wins it and deserves to.

Best Director: 9 times out of 10 this is a bullshit award that should just go to the best picture winner. This year is no different.

Best Actor Nominees
Richard Jenkins for The Visitor
Frank Langella for Frost/Nixon
Mickey Rourke for The Wrestler
Sean Penn for Milk
Brad Pitt for Ben Button

Thoughts: Brad Pitt doesn't belong in this category for Benjamin Button. He's a good actor but Benjamin Button was sub par. This is definitely between Penn and Rourke. I'm going to see The Wrestler (when it comes to Coolidge) so I'm not sure who I think should win this. Penn was good in Milk but I would not be surprised if Mickey Rourke was better. Penn probably will win. I'll update you on who I think should win.

Best Actress Nominees
Anne Hathaway for Rachel Getting Married
Meryl Streep for Doubt
Kate Winslet for The Reader
Melissa Leo for Frozen River
Angelina Jolie

Thoughts: Haven't seen any of these but I think Anne Hathaway takes this one with Meryl Streep a close second. Winslet has a chance (although The Reader was considered a supporting role by the golden globes she won both leading and supporting actress golden globes with Revolutionary Road and The Reader, respectively) but I think she's the dark horse.

Best Supporting Actor Nominees
Heath Ledger for Dark Knight
Josh Brolin for Milk
Robert Downey Jr for Tropic Thunder
Michael Shannon for Revolutionary Road
Phillip Seymour Hoffman for Doubt

Thoughts: Some decent nominees but this is Heath Ledger's year. I'm glad Josh Brolin got nominated because he's second in my book and he wasn't even nominated for the Golden Globe (was nominated by the Screen Actors which holds more weight for actors in my opinion)

Best Supporting Actress Nominees
Penelope Cruz for Vicky Cristina
Amy Adams for Doubt
Viola Davis for Doubt
Taraji Henson for Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei for The Wrestler

Thoughts: A tough call without a Kate Winslet part in there. I'd have to see Doubt and The Wrestler to make the call but I wouldn't be surprised if one of the Doubt girls wins it.

Best Original Score Nominees
Slumdog
Wall E
Milk
Defiance
Benjamin Button

Thoughts: People need to stop nominating Ben Button because it wasn't that good. I'd say this is between Slumdog and Wall E with the slight edge to Wall E (I hope). Gotta say I'm surprised that The Changeling isn't at least nominated. Clint does a pretty good job.

Best Original Song Nominees
Jai Ho from Slumdog
O Saya from Slumdog
Down to Earth from Wall E

Thoughts: Jai Ho probably wins this one because it's so memorable and cultish right now with Down to Earth a close second. Also, only three nominees? Springsteen doesn't deserve one for The Wrestler? Maybe even Gran Torino.

Best Animated Nominees
Bolt
Kung Fu Panda
Wall E

Thoughts: All were great, Wall E runs away with it and deserves to

Best Foreign Language Nominees
Vals Im Bashir
Okuribito
Revanche
Entre les murs
Der Baader Meinhof Komplex

Thoughts: From all reports Waltz with Bashir runs away with this one and I can't wait to see it

Best Documentary
Encounters at the End of the World
Man on Wire
Trouble the Water
The Garden
The Betrayal-Nerakhoon

Thoughts: This is the biggest BS category this year. Man on Wire and Encounters at the End of the World get nominated but Religulous, Where in the World is Osama Bin Laden?, Bigger Stronger Faster, Boogie Man, I.O.U.S.A., Pray the Devil Back to Hell, or even American Teen? That's ridiculous. I don't know what people see in those two movies. They were made for TV documentaries. I hope Trouble the Water wins

Ok, may update these later but that's enough of a brain dump for now

Happy Go Lucky

Rating: 7 out of 10 stars
I saw this on January 22 at the Coolidge Corner Theater.

This was an interesting movie. Essentially a character picture about an overly cheerly and optimistic girl and her interactions with others. The flow of the movie itself seemed dull and aimless at times but I think there was some great character work done here. Poppy was excellent and grew more interesting and endearing as the movie wore on. I think Scott the driving instructor was also incredibly well done.

At the end of the day though I think you have to have an amazing character (see "There Will Be Blood") to abandon a good storyline as much as they did. I think Milk did a great balancing job this year. Had a good story and a strong lead part that drew you in as well.

I give the movie credit though for its drama-comedy fence straddling with the character. It's not easy to do because usually good character pieces need a heavier story line. A for effort, B- for delivery

Kudos to the Coolidge Corner Theatre

I just want to take a second to say how impressed I have been with the Coolidge Corner Theatre's movie lineup recently and coming soon. They currently have Milk and Slumdog Millionaire and now they have Happy Go Lucky and, as far as I know, The Wrestler and Waltz With Bashir are coming. For such a small theater this is an impressive end of the year and beginning of the year lineup. Everyone in the community is lucky to have such a high quality theater with such a firm commitment to great movies.

In the next week or so I intend to write an Oscar prediction/commentary thread. Many of the predictions will be pure speculation and trend noticing but much of it will be my personal takes.

MIT: Gran Torino

Rating: 9 out of 10 stars

This was vintage Clint Eastwood and anyone who appreciates the body of work of Clint Eastwood will especially love this film.

It was reminiscent of Unforgiven in several ways. The entire movie set Clint Eastwood up as a gruff, uncaring individual who is a hardened killer (in this case, he was in the Korean War) who warms up over the course of the film. The ending is the kind of Unforgiven-esque poetic character change that make Eastwood as relevant in modern film as he is. Eastwood's performance isn't strong enough, imo, to warrant any sort of award. It's not the type of movie that gets, or really deserves, a best picture nomination (it does lack an Unforgiven, Mystic River, Million Dollar Baby gravitas during the entire movie). I doubt the song Gran Torino stands a chance against Peter Gabriel (Wall-E) and Bruce Springsteen (The Wrestler) so Gran Torino may go largely awardless but it is worth seeing for it's character tale and interesting story.

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Rating: 4.0 out of 10 stars
I saw this on 1/10/09 at Entertainment Cinemas in Leominster, Massachusetts

I cannot fathom why this movie is getting so much credit. I guess it must be because it's an "oscar-style" movie. In my opinion is cheap knockoff of other (good) movies and a poor man's drama.

Here are the cliche/knockoff moments that I find too stupid/obvious:
Old lady telling the story of her life framework for a movie is way too "Titanic"
The entire relationship seems to be a Forrest Gump/Jenny knockoff
Placing a love story uselessly near a known tragedy is very "Titanic" but at least the titanic had something to use because there was the urgency of being out at sea and there was the whole "class" issue
The reverse disease is overplayed and was reminiscent of "Phenomenon"

In addition to these, I found that his aging wasn't entirely consistent (or people around him didn't age consistently) and the whole process was inconsistent. What characeristics was he supposed to take from his disorder and which ones from his age? He has arthritis and bad hearing and vision when he's born but gets dementia when he's old too? He is born baby size but old and wrinkly so why does he shrink to baby size before he dies?

Overall, a poor showing. A knockoff, uninventive, poorly thought out movie.

Milk

Rating: 8.5 (almost 9) out of 10 stars
I saw this on January 7th at Coolidge Corner

This was a pretty good movie. It was touching at times and I liked the setup of Harvey dictated a memoir in case of his death.

Didn't much care for the love interest story (at least Rick, Scott was pretty good) but then again it was based on a true story so you can't really do much with that.

Haven't seen all the movies to make a completely informed judgment but I would think that Sean Penn deserves a nomination for best actor. Milk should be in the conversation for best picture but it wouldn't be outrageous if it got snubbed. I also think Josh Brolin should get some consideration for supporting actor. His part wasn't that big but I thought he played Dan White excellently.

This is definitely worth seeing.

Slumdog Millionaire

Rating: 9 out of 10 stars
I saw this on January 5 at Coolidge Corner

This was an excellent movie. I loved the story and they used the flow between game show and life very well. A well crafted plot that tugs at your heart strings and some very tense moments.

There was no outstanding performance in my opinion but it was extremely well done and solid all around. The Indian backdrop was excellent and the story arc reminded me of an Indian Scarface.

The end seemed predictable but I think the movie overall gave you reason enough to doubt a happy ending so the suspense was still there.

This should be in high contention for some oscars and get serious mention for best picture.

MIT: Iron Man

Rating: 7 out of 10 stars
I saw this on December 26th

I'm actually sorry I missed this one in theaters because I'm sure it would've been better on a big screen but it was still pretty good.

Action sequences were good, Tony Stark was a fairly interesting character and the story itself was decent. Should make way for some sequels with more interesting villains (this was really just the origin story and original bad guy fighting).

Worth seeing for action fans and it's nice to see Robert Downey string a few good ones together but other than that, eh, it's ok

MIT: The Fall (yes, I finally watched it)

Rating: 8.5 out of 10 stars
I watched this on 1/2/09

This movie was quite interesting. I thought the visuals were breathtaking and inventive and I really enjoyed the storytelling aspect.

I also applaud the movie for a nice balance of story telling and real life. I think there could have been a more well thought out and/or longer story even if it meant a longer movie but overall it was well done.

I found the movie hard to follow at times and there could have been more character development but the last scene(s) are excellent.

Should win some oscars for visuals and such but I don't think this is a best picture candidate and I'm not sure if any of the performances were strong enough to warrant consideration either.